Missouri’s Department of Commerce and Insurance announced on November 4, 2026 that NCCI’s 2027 workers’ compensation loss cost filing is rate-neutral at 0%, as Insurance Journal reported the next day. The flat headline follows a 1.3% increase for 2026, a sequence we covered alongside Iowa and Oklahoma. This piece asks a narrower question: what does a flat average do to your own expected claim ratio?
The split behind the zero
The filing’s proposed changes by industry group:
| Industry group | Proposed loss cost change |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing | +1.2% |
| Miscellaneous | +1.3% |
| Goods and Services | -0.2% |
| Office and Clerical | -1.2% |
| Contracting | -2.0% |
The 0% is a statewide average across all insured payroll. No self-insured has that payroll. As an illustration only, using the published group changes: an employer with 80% of payroll in Manufacturing and 20% in Office and Clerical sees a weighted change of about +0.7%. A contractor with all payroll in Contracting sees -2.0%. A miscellaneous-heavy employer, such as a services or logistics operator, sees +1.3%. Group-level changes are themselves averages across many class codes, so treat these as a first cut.
Frequency is the stated driver; severity is the offset
DCI attributes the stability to a sustained decline in claim frequency. It also names the counterweight: attorney involvement in lost-time claims was 35.2% in 2025, compared with a 26.5% average in border states and 22.3% countrywide. DCI Director Angela Nelson called attorney involvement “an outsized cost-driver,” and the department says it raises claim costs and resolution time, offsetting some of the gain from fewer claims.
That is a reserve mechanism, not a footnote. Frequency affects the claim count in your expected claim ratio (ECR). Attorney involvement affects cost per claim and closure speed, which show up in paid severity and in how long case reserves stay open. A pooled prior that nets the two together tells you nothing about which one your own triangle is showing.
Who it affects
Self-insured Missouri manufacturers, hospital and university employers with mixed clerical and facilities payroll, and public entities and pools with Missouri operations. Captives writing Missouri workers’ comp behind a fronting carrier are affected through the ECR their actuary selects for the two newest accident years.
Where this shows up in your reserves
Open the actuarial report’s Bornhuetter-Ferguson exhibit and find the a priori loss ratio or ECR for accident years 2026 and 2027, then the payroll-by-class exhibit feeding it. Next, split your reported claim counts from average paid per closed claim by accident year. If counts fall while average paid per claim rises, you resemble the state’s pattern and a frequency-only prior will understate the cost. A pooled prior also differs from your expected losses because advisory loss costs exclude carrier expense and schedule credits, and they reflect insured-market injury mix and deductible structures that yours may not match. See Bornhuetter-Ferguson for how the prior gets chosen.
Our call
Do not read 0% as a trend signal. A flat statewide figure with offsetting group moves and a litigation cost pressure DCI itself highlights points to a market that has stopped getting cheaper, not one about to get cheaper again. We expect Manufacturing and Miscellaneous payroll to be the first groups to carry an increase if frequency gains slow, and Contracting to be the first to stop falling. That is a judgment from the published group splits, not a figure from the filing. Connecticut’s filing, for contrast, proposed a 4.9% decrease, so Missouri is not part of a uniform national decline.
What this means for your next review
Ask your actuary to restate the 2027 ECR using your audited payroll by class code, grouped into NCCI’s five industry groups, and to state the credibility weight given to your own experience versus the pooled prior. Ask separately whether your frequency and severity trends are tested apart. Also note the workers’ comp IBNR guide for where those inputs enter.
Decision checklist for the next 30 to 90 days:
- Map your Missouri payroll to the five industry groups and compute the weighted change.
- Pull claim counts and average paid per closed claim by accident year, separately.
- Count the share of your lost-time claims with attorney representation, and compare it with 35.2%.
- Confirm your actuary’s a priori for AY2026 and AY2027 and the reason it does or does not move.
- Watch for the DCI order and NCCI’s indemnity and medical split, which would show whether stability is frequency only.