On March 13, 2026, NCCI filed its Arkansas workers compensation loss cost and assigned-risk rate summary with the Arkansas Insurance Department for a July 1, 2026 effective date. The filing proposes a 9.8% decrease to current voluntary loss costs and a 9.8% decrease to assigned-risk market rates.
That is a real statewide signal. It is not an automatic reserve release for Arkansas self-insured employers.
NCCI says the filing is based on premium and loss data as of year-end 2024 for policy years 2021 through 2023. The Arkansas explanation cites improved experience versus the July 1, 2025 filing, a long-term decline in lost-time claims relative to premium, and a downward long-term trend in average lost-time claim cost for both indemnity and medical. It also includes the impact of Arkansas medical fee schedule changes effective January 1, 2026 and an updated loss adjustment expense component.
Who it affects
The immediate audience is Arkansas-heavy self-insured manufacturers, retailers, healthcare employers, universities, trucking and distribution operations, contractors, public entities, and pooled programs that use NCCI loss costs or Expected Loss Rates as an external check on workers compensation expected claim ratios. Multi-state employers should isolate the Arkansas accident-year and payroll slice rather than blend the 9.8% decrease into a countrywide workers compensation pick.
The class mix matters. A large employer concentrated in low-rate clerical, healthcare, or light industrial classifications can receive a different payroll-weighted signal than the statewide average. That point is sharper in the 2026 cycle because NCCI is extending loss costs, rates, and Expected Loss Rates from two decimals to three, a change covered in our three-decimal benchmark piece. The Arkansas filing says changes can now be as small as 0.001, while the underlying methodology is unchanged and the decimal extension is premium-neutral at the statewide and industry-group level.
Reserve mechanism
The reserve lever is the expected claim ratio for immature Arkansas accident years. In a Bornhuetter-Ferguson reserve indication, the selected expected loss or claim ratio carries much of the weight before the paid and reported triangles mature. If the prior Arkansas expected claim ratio was tied to older bureau loss-cost levels, the July 1 filing gives the actuary a fresh benchmark.
The benchmark still needs credibility testing against the employer’s own data. Compare lost-time claim counts per payroll, medical paid per closed claim, open indemnity duration, closure rates, and case-reserve changes before moving the selected ratio. If Arkansas frequency is down but open medical files are receiving more services per claim, the statewide loss-cost decrease can coexist with flat or higher ultimate losses in the retained layer.
That caution is not theoretical. NCCI’s 2026 State of the Line guide says national workers compensation lost-time claim frequency declined 2% in 2025, while medical and indemnity claim severity each rose 4% and the accident-year combined ratio reached 102%. NCCI’s Arkansas summary also flags medical utilization as the primary driver of 2024 medical cost increases. A lower prospective loss-cost level should therefore flow first through the expected claim ratio, not through older case reserves, tail factors, or blanket IBNR releases. For the broader diagnostic, see the workers compensation IBNR guide and the recent NCCI accident-year reserve gap analysis.
What this means for your next review
Put an Arkansas expected claim ratio bridge on the next reserve-study agenda. Ask your actuary to show the current selected Arkansas ratio beside a payroll-weighted July 1, 2026 NCCI class blend, then reconcile that benchmark to your own frequency, closure, medical utilization, wage mix, and recent paid and incurred emergence. If the TPA has changed case-reserving or closure practices, separate that effect before treating the 9.8% statewide filing as reserve evidence.
Sources
- NCCI, Summary of the Proposed Arkansas Workers Compensation Loss Cost and Assigned Risk Rate Filing Effective July 1, 2026, https://www.ncci.com/Articles/Documents/II_StateAdvisoryForumState_AR_2026.pdf
- Arkansas Workers’ Compensation Commission, Arkansas Medical Fee Schedule, https://labor.arkansas.gov/workers-comp/awcc-rules-advisories-medical-fees/arkansas-medical-fee-schedule/
- NCCI, Decimal Extension of Loss Costs, Rates, and Expected Loss Rates, https://www.ncci.com/Articles/Pages/II_Decimal-Extension-Loss-Costs-Rates-Expected-Loss-Rates.aspx
- NCCI, 2026 State of the Line Guide, https://www.ncci.com/Articles/Pages/AIS2026-SOTL-Guide-Redirect.aspx
- actuary.info, WC Frequency-Severity Split Widens in NCCI’s 2024 Year-End Data, https://actuary.info/insights/ncci-2024-wc-frequency-severity-split-trend-selection