Loss Reserving Methods.
How actuaries turn claim history into an unpaid claim estimate: the core projection methods, the development factors they share, and the specific situations where each one breaks. Written for the risk manager, CFO, or board member who receives the reserve report, not the actuary who produced it.
From triangle to ultimate.
Reserving methods build on each other: the triangle organizes the claim history, development factors quantify the pattern, and each projection method applies that pattern with different assumptions about how much to trust immature data. Read in sequence for the full picture, or jump to the method your actuary's report leans on.
- Part 1, How Actuaries Estimate Your Unpaid Claims: A Buyer's Guide to the Five Core MethodsThe survey12 min read
- Part 2, How to Read a Loss Development TriangleThe data18 min read
- Part 3, Loss Development Factors, Explained: What the LDF Table in Your Report Actually SaysThe factors11 min read
- Part 4, Chain Ladder: How Actuaries Project Claims From Historical PatternsMethod: development13 min read
- Part 5, Bornhuetter-Ferguson: The Method That Balances Past Data and Prior ExpectationMethod: blended13 min read
- Part 6, The Expected Loss Ratio Method: Reserving When Your Data Cannot Speak YetMethod: expectation10 min read
- Part 7, Berquist-Sherman in Plain EnglishThe adjustment14 min read
Companion methodology.
Methodology topics that sit alongside the projection methods: how program structure changes what the methods operate on, and what to check before trusting their output.
The Reserving Briefing.
One email a month for self-insureds and captives. Reserving fundamentals, method notes, and commentary on what's actually moving loss development this quarter.